Wednesday, July 11, 2018

信貸評級

 Table 1 : 商業及消費服務業的評級標準














Table 2 : 零售業的評級標準






1)速動比率及流動比率(QUICK RATIO AND CURRENT RATIO
速動比率及流動比率是可以反映企業流動性的財務比率,兩者的計算方法十分接近,但數值的意義則大有不同。流動比率是以企業的流動資產除以流動負債,而速動比率亦然,不過就減去庫存。從會計學的角度而言,流動資產當中除了現金及銀行存款等流動性極高的資產外,亦包括應收帳款(Account Receivable)等較為流動的資產,最後亦有庫存Inventory)等需要較長時間出售從而轉換成為企業流動資金的資產。因為速動比率的計算並不包括庫存,所以流動比率反映的是企業較為長期償債能力,而速動比率則量化企業較短期的償債能力。以香港上市的內房企業為例,流動及速動比率的市場平均值大約為1.80.6,企業的比率較平均值高則表示企業的流動性較市場平均值佳。除此之外,投資者亦可參考現金比率(Cash Ratio),計算方法是以現金及現金等值除以流動負債,所以現金比率可以反映企業能夠即時撥款償債的能力;同樣地,現金比率愈高代表企業即時償付債項的能力愈好,以香港上市的內房為例,現金比率的市場平均值大約為0.3

Formula ; Above 1 Means healthy ; below 1 means risk
Major different between this 2 ratio, Quick ration without consider inventory, so it is most stringent requirement. 















Cash Ratio = (Cash and cash equivalents / current liabilities)

The cash ratio is the ratio of a company's total cash and cash equivalents (CCE) to its current liabilities. The metric calculates a company's ability to repay its short-term debt; this information is useful to creditors when deciding how much debt, if any, they would be willing to extend to the asking party. The cash ratio is generally a more conservative look at a company's ability to cover its liabilities than many other liquidity ratios because other assets, including accounts receivable, are left out of the equation.


if results is 1 means the company have exactly the cash to repay its debt.


2)利息覆蓋率(EBIT/TOTAL INTEREST EXPENSE
利息覆蓋率反映企業償付利息的能力,可以理解為,企業的息稅前利潤是否足夠償還融資的成本。財政狀況穩健的企業,營運收益理應蓋過營運借貸的成本。所以若然這個比率下跌至低於1的水平,企業於該個財政年度期間則有需要動用備用現金以償還利息。當然,比率低於1並不代表企業必然會違約,企業仍然可運用現金儲備以償付利息。但就長遠發展而言,如果企業的利息覆蓋率長期處於1以下的水平,企業的營運壓力將會愈來愈高,每年需要從現金及銀行存款當中撥備,當現金餘額變至不足償還利息,企業就可能需要變賣資產以籌措資金,不過變賣資產亦非一朝一夕的事,企業有可能因未能即時變賣資產以償還即將到期的債務而有可能違約。

Same above 1 means company ability to repay debt is good.













3)淨債務對息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(NET DEBT/EBITDA
淨債務對息稅折舊攤銷前利潤反映企業目前的負債與盈利比重,這一項槓桿比率普遍受評級機構所重視。因為淨債務為總債務減去企業現有的現金及現金等值,所以分析員能夠從這項比率分析企業未來的減償能力。以香港上市的內房為例,淨債務對息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的市場平均值大約為6.7倍,意思是若然企業的營運狀況在未來保持不變(淨債務及息稅折舊攤銷前利潤均保持不變),該些企業將能以6.7年的時間將其淨債務全部清還。當然,債務能以最短時間清還最為理想,所以此比率越低代表其債務負擔越低。

Net Debt to EBITDA Example
Suppose an investor wishes to conduct horizontal analysis on Company ABC to determine its ability to pay off its debt. For its previous fiscal year, Company ABC's short-term debt was $6.31 billion, long-term debt was $28.99 billion, and cash of $13.84 billion.

Therefore, Company ABC reported net debt of $21.46 billion, or $6.31 billion plus $28.99 billion less $13.84 billion, and an EBITDA of $60.60 billion during the fiscal period. Consequently, Apple had a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.35, or $21.46 billion divided by $60.60 billion.

For its recent fiscal year, Apple had short-term debt of $8.50 billion, long-term debt of $53.46 billion, and cash of $21.12 billion. The company increased its net debt by 90.31%, to $40.84 billion year over year. Company ABC reported an EBITDA of $77.89 billion, a 28.53% increase from its EBITDA the previous year.


Therefore, Company ABC had a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.52, or $40.84 billion divided by $77.89 billion. Although Company ABC's net debt to EBITDA ratio increased by 0.17, or 49.81% year-over-year. 

The ratio the lower the better.

4)總債務對總資產比率(TOTAL LIABILITIES/TOTAL ASSETS
總債務對總資產比率的計算方法比較簡單,概括描述企業的營運風險。總資產包含流動及非流動資產,我們在介紹流動及速動比率的部份已經簡單講述流動資產的定義,所以就不再重複,至於非流動資產則包括機器、土地、營運物業及商譽等無法輕易轉換成為現金的資產。以香港上市的內房為例,總債務對總資產比率的市場平均值大約為0.7。若然比率的數值高於1,表示企業即使全數出售資產,仍無法全數償還債務,亦代表公司無法繼續營運。

The ratio below 1 is ability to return debt is good. the lower the better.

5)資產回報率(RETURN ON ASSETS
產回報率反映企業運用資本的能力。數值的高低並無任何特定標準,而且對比不同公司作比較時需要小心,因為資產回報率的計算方法因應不同企業而有分別,部份企業以純利除以資產總額,亦有部份企業將利息支出重新計算至純利當中,所以對比單一公司過去的資產回報率則為簡單,因為從每年資產回報率的變化可以觀察到個別企業的營運狀況,若然資產回報率按年下跌,代表企業的營運狀況開始轉弱。
以上五個財務比率能夠反映企業的信貸基礎,但不同的財務比率的高低對於不同行業的意義會有所不同。以槓桿性較重的行業如內房為例,由於發展房地產業務需要大量資金用以買地及建築,而且回本期較其他行業為長,所以負債比率一般較其他企業為高,所以投資者參考個別企業的財務比率時,需要以相同行業的公司或其版塊的平均值以作比較。財務比率可以作為對企業信貸基礎的概覽,需要留意的是,企業的財務比率只反映企業單獨個體的狀況,若然企業有國企背景,企業的信用基礎將會與企業所在國家的主權信貸基礎掛鉤,當中包括國家經濟及長遠的貨幣走勢。由於個別財務比率不能夠直接反映企業整體的違約風險,所以作出投資決定時,投資者除了需要參考不同的財務數據及比率外,亦需要留意環球經濟狀況及該版塊的前景


A company's return on assets (ROA) is calculated as the ratio of its net income in a given period to the total value of its assets. For instance, if a company has $10,000 in total assets and generates $2,000 in net income, its ROA would be $2,000 / $10,000 = 0.2 or 20%.

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