Setup target for 2016
1. Increase dividend pay out in 2016. Target 6000.
Action point.
- Quarterly need to have 1500
Results
-> 2016Q1 - 1408.57 - below Target RM 100.
-> 2016Q2 - 1302.72 - below target RM200. (fund under utilized)
-> 2016Q3 - 1491.4 - slightly below target.
-> 2016Q4 - 2581.01 -above target.
2. Improve on Technical analysis skill.
Action point
- Price, volume , time, space
- Chart overall direction
- Master class skill
Results
-> did not attend major class, new method was MCD + homily position + bull bear trend.
-> MCD cross to be taken the formula.
-> Trend Expert - to verify and show on trending instead of pricing. shall + MCD or LSF to verify on fund movement.
-> Strong Signal + 13 Days MA. (during a uptrend)
3. Healthy
Action point
- weekly review on sport done.
- target at least 2 day sport per week
Results
->Apr 16 weight maintain at 76-77kg not seem any improvement. lack of sport still.
->May 16 weight maintain at 76~77kg, no difference, to track sport on weekly basis to improve.
->Jun 16 weight maintain - still not much improvement.
->Jul 16 weight maintain - still not much improvement.
->Aug 16 -> Yoga. + Sport.
3.1 Healthy - Exercise week
--week 21 - manage to finish Walk & bike(4km+16km) challenge.
--week 22 - complete trekking for bukit wawasan puchong.
-- week 23 -bukit ketumpar use back road, more Challenging.
--week 28 - Bukit ketumpar use normal front road.
--week 29 - genting
--week 36 - Bukit ketumpar.
4. Reading
Action point
- read 1 book per month.
- review monthly for accomplishment.
Results
-> Jan 16 - Failed
-> Feb 16 - Failed
-> Mar 16 - Failed
-> Apr 16 - 1 book done.
-> May 16 - 1 book done.
->Jun 16 - Failed
-> Jul 16 -1 book done.
->Aug 16 - 1 book done.
-> Sep 16 - 1 book done
-> Oct 16 - 1 book done
-> Nov - Failed
4.1 Reading Summary
To write down summary for the book done reading.
-- 30 years Stock - Formula, divergence + low buy + long term.
-- 40 years Stock -
-- Lee Kuan yew view world - people shv be fundamental of consideration in all aspect, no 1 theory is suitable for all. all policy got benefit and disadvantage, culture is important and can't be change easily.
6. Fundamental Analysis
Action point
- financial report. understanding financial report meaning and reason.
- monthly go thru 2 financial report and weekly learn.
Results
I) Low - PE low <15 / <10
II) Reversal - buy during reversal phase. market resilient or drop. willingness to trade low.
III) Growth - Stock need to be able to show continue growth
IV) Time - investing period shall be longer term in order to profitable.
Financial report-how to read it?
Financial report break into 4 parts.
a) Balance sheet(start up capital)
b) Income statement(P&L)
c) Cash flow statement (identify cash on hands to pay debt and operate)
d) changes in Equity (no of ordinary share)
Details on another post - How to read financial report.
How to do analysis on fundamental
Analysis should cover from Overall country economy into Industry into individual stock.
raw material price trend should be use to make assumption on next q performance.
if same industry have announce QR. the others company under same industry can assume impact is almost similar. unless there is absolute advantage or monopoly business.
7. Trending
Action point
- 2016 forecast trend to be export, consumer ,
USD strengthening will depreciate RM, export oriental stock shall be beneficial.
Results
-> from Jan - Apr 16 RM have strengthening against USD for 15%. did not appear to be weakening, could be due to delay of USD interest rate up.
-> sector Results Jan - Apr 16 blue chips sector, steel sector overall up > 15%.
-> export sector overall drop 20-40% due to RM appreciate.
May 16 Forecast
- market down overall due to strengthening of RM against USD, overall export stock down 20 - 40%.
Blue chips stock also fall on last week of Apr 16 could be foreign fund have begin flowing out, after few month of net buy.
- could be due to May sell and go.
May 16 Actual
- overall market down on May 16, major company net profit drop including banking sector drop 20-40%, this show significant issue with current weak consumer sentimental. The drop was also due to MSCI reduce the % in msia market and move more to china market, expect this will lead more foreign fund move out from msia market to others market. Last day KLCI trade exceed 6.7B highest in record. major foreign fund quit local institute buy in.
Minor stock still doing well, such as
I) Old town - Profit up significant due to improvement in sales for oldtown white coffee, this is rather increase much than old town cafe, cafe biz remain resilient. Stock price gap up 11% after announcement of excel results. in compare with power root results was drop but if take out 1 time earning from property gain revenue remain same. old town focus more on South east asia country while power root more on mid east n south america. same product but distribute different network.
- for the Q2 to monitor if the old town revenue can continue increase, as the demand might due to festival season effect.
II) Panamy - Profit up/Revenue up, unexpected in recent poor environment still able to archive good profit. share price up since before results announcement, shall accumulate if price drop.
June 16 forecast
- expect the Fed to raise interest in this month, while oil price expect to remain around US 50/ barrel, stock wise, those with profitable shall be able to increase stock price. overall KLCI should be quite low after Fed increase interest, may rebound after interest declare.
June 16 Actual
- Actual Fed delay interest hiking, and postpone. possible is in Dec instead due to worldwide weak consumer sentimental.
- Oil price maintain at USD 45-USD50/barrel, unlikely to break thru or fall sharp.
- Stock wise notice a few stock which is potential but no buy such as
--SAM - notice when on RM 6. plan to swap with supermax but lack in action due loss changes of opportunity, Major shareholder is Temasek shall have confident in it. with recent convert ICULS the company become cash rich which enable it to issue special dividend as well.
--KESM, - notice it become active stock, just know is industrial product. not sure the biz nature.
--Star - Star newspaper have observe a while but didn't get at low price, shall tk note on the company announcement on changes on shareholder, EPF is buying it causing it hard to fall. while MCD also shown red. so price can hardly fall down. shall have plan to buy instead.
July 16 Forecast
- moving into 2nd half of the year. as normal half year is time to swap stock for institutional fund as well.shall cut stock price fall above 15%, and swap to others which is on the uptrend instead.
- expect RM to strengthen for the period. consumer stock , construction stock shall be active sector in this month.
- expect KLCI to side way unless corporate profit have shown improve from last qoq.
July 16 Actual
KLCI index is same as july drop back due to 1mdb news, it erupted the bullish trending and becoming bearish again.
These consumer stock performing well, Dlady, Aji, Hein , Carlsberg, F&N, Nestle, this shall reflect when year 2015 consumer stock weak due to implementation of GST.
while export stock drop for those last year gain from forex(weak RM).
Mistake - didnt put attention on these stock as from price it self expensive but did not check its intrinsic value or PE instead. when up trend shall use more technical instead of fundamental. Miss out on Panamy and KESM instead. Strong uptrend.
August 16 forecast
upcoming should be construction sector will be perform due to budget announcement as well major construction work award.
August 16 Actual
actual stock perform on construction and KLCI still sideway, KESM still uptrend as in august.
notice that >5 price stock less retailer buy, so should be mostly on institute.
hk stock perform better due to news on shenzhen hk link.
September 16 forecast
expect bullish market coming, glove stock benefit from zika virus, although not really relevant. but news on glove sector should be well doing, steel stock moving up after few years of down trend. due to china reduce output capacity. electronic stock can consider as well, since iphone 7 is launching soon.
overall market should be doing well this month.
September 16 actual
on september month, Steel sector remain strong, such as Masteel especially have show promising return instead. banking sector remain weak still.
October 16 Forecast
with weakening RM expect those export stock should be moving strong, while this month is budgeting month, not expect any benefit budget as well.
Sector to consider Export counter.
Expert Fed to up USD rate in dec 16.
October 16 Actual
RM was weaken most of the time but last week of Oct sudden show signs of stronger due to petrol price up. overall petrol price again this month. 15 cent. along with cook oil up. this is further increase the inflation, getting consumer sentiment weaker. but budget month do not appear significant up in KLCI. overall environment still weak.
Nov 16 forecast
year end coming, fund manager its time to review results and swap share accordingly. shall closely monitor again. foresee USD will up interest and remain strong.
Nov 16 Actual
USD went up faster than expected, didn't even manage to open the amertrade account and transfer usd. current stand strong at 4.4-4.5 , from 4 last month.
stock wise palm oil shown promise as CPO price keep went up instead. Steel stock also performing as this month is most company financial report month.
Overall company financial results drop, including export theme for wood and electronic and glove.
Dec 16 Forecast
Year end, expect USD FED to raise interest on 12/13 dec by 0.25%.
strong usd could further impact on RM drop.
Action shall transfer USD to amertrade before RM drop further, but 4.5 gap is already huge. could it go further?(to determine by this month)
8. Portfolio review.
Action point
- Monthly review on portfolio.
Results
-> Jan - updated
-> Feb - updated
-> Mar - updated
-> Apr - updated
-> May - updated
->Jun - updated
->Jul - updated
->Aug - updated
->Sep - updated
-> Oct - updated
-> Nov - updated
-> Dec - updated
Portfolio review shall adjust to protect the capital by amending a portion of fund into reccuring income such as rental, could consider increase % on REIT stock.
Test case on September
try to secure a stock that is still sideways with range volatile not too great to accumulate and reduce cost. possible try on REIT stock.
