Review on the current situation
Technically
Based on chart as below.
we can observe that the current direction is moving downwards.
based on symmetry assumption the chances of its moving back to 4 is high.(chart 4)
but the recent drop have show some "main chip" buying at low and form a lowest point around 4.2.
current at priced 4.31~3.
but the accumulation area chips volume was not significant huge.
a huge volume trade at 29 mil. @ price 5. (who is buying?) --chart 2&3
refer to chart 5 we can see EPF is acquiring the stock. but the recent.but the main chips accumulation area was happen around sept 4, 5,6 . as of now no announcement being made yet.
Fundamental
chart 6&7
PE - 9.21
DY - 4%
EPS - 44.24 cent
so far on valuation wise not high and not very low(PE 8).
compare others CIMB ,maybank, hlb around PE 14 - 15.
Ambank & affin is so far lowest PE.
Prospect
Future EPS should be able to increase or maintain as overall banking sector should have start recover on the earning already. but uncertainly on the founder wish to retire as well main shareholder ANZ wish to sell and quit ambank. this 2 uncertainty should be the risk factor cause the share cannot perform as same as others.
Strategy
Current purchase price at 4.94 @ 3500 unit. which has incur losses. 12-13%
so shall consider to leverage down on it.
price enter at 4.3 seem to be low(main chip buying) unless there is lower low.
the lowest estimation to be stood at 4.
rationally shall have 2 bet 1 bet on 4.3 another on 4 respectively.
chart 1
chart 2
chart 3
chart 4
chart 5
chart 6
chart 7
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