Wednesday, January 18, 2017

How to choose a Stock from Industry

How to choose Stock from a different industry

1) Consumer Industry
2) Manufacturing Industry
3) Construction Industry
4) Finance Industry
5) Property Developer Industry
6) Plantation Industry
7) ACE Industry

1) Consumer Industry
- Consumer goods related to daily living of citizen, so it very related to disposable income of people.
if economy good. consumer goods good sales. profit up. share price will up.
- Choose those with strong branding, have big market share, industry top player such as Nestle, Dlady, Heim , Carlsberg , Ajinomoto.
- Choose those provide daily necessary such as NTPM , Mflour.

2) Manufacturing Industry
- this industry is very impact by big environment and always have economy cycle.
- Choose player that have high efficiency and low operation cost and strong cash flow.
- Choose when cycle down, and price share below half of NTA or 1/3 of NTA.
- Choose those with Strong cash flow during the down cycle.

3) Construction Industry
- Very much impact by government project, and construction take long time to complete and tender normally take long process.
- Choose those with strong brand and good cash flow such as Gadang.

4) Finance Industry
- Finance industry bank is control by BNM, so the profit is plus minus 1.5% range. so safety is important for bank industry to avoid bad debt.
- Choose bank that is caution and creditable.

5) Property Developer Industry
- to build a house need development, normally 1 Hectare is 2.47 Acres. 1 Acres is 43.5k sqft. 
1 Acres  can build about 10 double story house, if low cost house can build 14 to 16 house. 
normally only 60% of the land can be use to build house, remaining will be use to build facilities such as road , electrical, piping etc..
- to build a house cost about 2 years, and provide warranty after build for 2 years. so actually about 4 years only can consider done for 1 project. 
- Normally house Gross profit about 25 - 30%. so depends on the land bank buy when and pricing of the house if went up. Normally is a project able to sell 70% above consider is profitable already.
- Most profitable is build shoplot because less quantity, 1 housing area about 7% can be use to build shoplot only.
- Choose player that have alot of land bank and good location of land bank.
- Choose strong cash flow company and healthy company
- Avoid those company with a huge land bank and profit but not willing to share with minority shareholder.

6) Plantation Industry
- Plam oil industry depends on commodity price, like CPO. if CPO up the industry will earning.
- Normally 1 hectar of palm oil can output 21 ton of palm oil per year, if lower means efficiency low.
- evaluation is base on per hectar plam oil less than RM 30k.
- plam oil tree after 5 years produce palm oil, 7 - 18 years is mature and high production. 
- Choose those palm oil company with high immature tree as this is future growing engine.
- Palm oil company also have another asset which is land if the land develop and convert to property will be earning more.

7) ACE Industry
- ACE industry no need focus on NTA, shall focus on the services and idea provided. focus on services provided.

Some stock picking in different country as below
1) US Market should pick technology and medicine.
2) Singapore Market is services
3) Malaysia Market is Plantation and Manufacturing.
4) UK Market is finance.







Tuesday, January 17, 2017

17 Jan 17 - Good Year ahead


Today 17 Jan 17 apparently is a good ahead.
as 4 of my stock so coincidentally appear together in Top 4 list. hehehe.
A Good year start ahead for 2017.

Monday, January 9, 2017

Dividend - 2017

Dividend 2017

Q1 2017 - 1,217.82

JAN - 303
FEB - 0
MAR - 914.82
APR -
MAY -
JUN -
JUL -
AUG -
SEP -
OCT -
NOV -
DEC -

Jan
KLCI - 1,671.54
Portfolio - 142,270.77
P&L - (717.77 ; 0.5%)

Feb
KLCI - 1,693.77
Portfolio - 144,590.87
P&L - (294.13 ; 0.2%)

Mar
KLCI - 1,740.09
Portfolio - 190,365.97
P&L - (4045.03 ; 2.12%)

Apr
KLCI - 1,768.06 (+28 point)
Portfolio - 177,676.51
P&L - (4879.49 ; 2.75%)

May
KLCI - 1,765.87 (-3 point)
Portfolio - 154049.31
P&L - (4760.69 ; 3.09%)

Friday, January 6, 2017

Topglove 2017 Jan 5 AGM - First AGM

First Attend AGM - Topglov

First time attend Topglov AGM, in its new buildings in setia alam. overall well manage and building still quite new. alot of staff was assign to serve shareholder.

Door Gift
Break fast Tuna and banana
2 pack of TopGlove glove.
1 Towel
lunch pack(Chinese meal)

Highlight




 Reason to sales revenue higher and profit due to Raw material price reduce and RM depreciate while others impact on cost is Natural gas and minimum wages increase.




Shareholder return increasing



 This can see the company manage well. turn over quite fast about 30-40 days only.


 Dividend payout for the years.



 Apparently Latex and Nitrile is major sales, but soon Latex powder will be replace by Nitrile.



Plan to finish 3 new factory for all nitrile glove by 2017 and 2018


From here can see the Europe and North America cater almost half of the sales already.














If one buy the stock since IPO till now its price will be 110 already about 4400% accordingly.



Reply on queries

1. Impact on US Ban latex powder on medical can be negligible due to small % only Ban on medical sector.
2. while the 75% forex reserve is no cost impact as may convert back to USD at same rate, just double admin work.
3. labour wages hike to be reduce by automation in future.
4. future planning about 200-250Mil capex expansion on new factory and refurbish exiting factory.Plan is 1 year build 2 new factory.
5. Board confidence after 1-2 years will be No. 1 for Nitrile glove as well. Means Kossan will be beat up.(to be observe)



Summary

Only after the AGM i know and ask the type of glove that TP is doing. lucky got a counter to present and explain the glove to shareholder. From the information that glove basically divided in 4 category which is Latex , Nitrile , CPE/TPE , Medical used. for Latex is natural rubber made, Nitrile is synthetic rubber(Rubber which is not rubber allegy, used in various works), CPE is use for food hygiene while medical is custom made for dental and surgical glove which it is custom made in size.

The reason Nitrile glove was so high demand was due to it is free of Rubber Latex Allegy. meanwhile the US have also Ban all the latex powder for medical sector used. Due to this reason TP have been aggressive build new plant to produce Nitrile glove instead of Latex glove.

Some key point highlight by board was that the glove is still got market to expand as Middle east country appear to be next growing engine for glove sector if the government decide to impose glove usage in these country.

i do believe the company still can growth further as the market demand is still there, and Malaysia have good raw material such as rubber and infrastructure to support this industry growth.



Tuesday, January 3, 2017

2017 First year ahead

2017

Pray for better year ahead, fortune, healthy and wealthy year.


Saturday, December 31, 2016

Movie - The Great Wall

Movie "The Great Wall"


Summary
This story is about 2 traveler from west going to east to get the fire powder(bomb) then meet eastern great wall while defending against the monster call "Tao Tei" which is claim to invade china every 60 years(yi "jia") then the foreinger help china to defeat the monster and leave back to west with empty hand(gun powder) but learn somethings called "TRUST". The monster appear like Alien or Bees type. where the queen born these work/attack monster. work monster will go attack and feed the queen while the guard monster is personal guard for the queen. Each monster also have specific work to do.

Highlight 
About the final method they plan to eliminate the queen in order to stop this crisis. At first they let the work monster which capture by them to be feed and let it return. so that it will retun back to queen and feed the queen. When the work monster head to feed the queen it need to pass thru the queen personal guard check before going in.(its not sense as it dislike humean where monster wont kill the queen and replace it) after that they will shoot fire arrow on the work monster carrying fire powder. but they failed to do so for first time as attack was block by queen guard. they use the same method for 2nd time also failed as block by queen guard again. Finally they make improvement thow a magnet that will stop the monster movement while shoot the fire arrow towards the work monster then it blast and kill the queen. monster without queen command cease movement and die. The End.

Comment
Apparently when 1 method used and it proof to be fail one must improvise it and improve it so that it will lead to different results, same like the method to kill at first fail. shall improvise into another method.  if that method proof to failed, keep continue it also won't make any different.

Friday, December 30, 2016

Solar First year Review 2016

Review on Solar FIT 2015 - 2016

Hold year generate Kwh of 10,227Kwh is near to expectation in TNB quota(10327Kwh).


Payment face problem in September 16 onward due to TNB payment system upgrade. As of today payment delay for 2 month. need to chase payment again.


To verify on the ROI as below.
First year 2016 about ROI - 16.94%. / 10,874.80 but payment actual received is 9313.59
lack of 2 month payment behind.


Expectation for 2017 will be as below.
According to projected Kwh should be 10,275KwH / RM 10-11k


Maintenance if needed since already pass 1 year without maintain it. also base on the 1 year input on Apr,May month is max sun light generated while Nov,Dec month is min as many rain. if this is align with the country weather and as well as the monsoon season.